BP’s recently released “BP Energy Outlook 2030” report claims that a dramatic rise in new unconventional sources of oil — tight oil, tar sands and NGLs — will solve the “peak oil” problem. These new sources of “oil” are primed to gush forth and allow the world to burn lots more oil for decades to come. BP’s chief executive Bob Dudley said bluntly:
“Fears over oil running out – to which BP has never subscribed – appear increasingly groundless.”
And it’s not just oil. According to BP, a combination of powerful new extraction technologies, growing populations and extremely weak climate policies mean humanity is on track to excavate and burn lots more fossil fuels of all kinds by 2030: 15% more oil, 26% more coal and 46% more methane (aka natural gas). In fact, policies still so strongly favour fossil fuels that BP predicts that two-thirds of all new energy over the next two decades will be supplied by increased fossil fuel burning.
Off the climate cliff
Unfortunately for just about everyone, this “most likely” energy comes with one very big downside. If we do burn that much fossil fuel we will crank the global thermostat up 4OC. And that, scientists say, will inflict climate misery on humanity for thousands of years. Out of the peak oil frying pan and into the raging climate fire. Sorry kids.
How bad is 4OC?…